Showing posts with label Nifty view. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nifty view. Show all posts

February 28, 2010

Markets After Budget

Hello Friends,

The long awaited Budget sparkles completed their lights and now we are back again to global cues fundamentals etc, etc... Up to me it was a mixed budget and it was not enough to kindle the lights of common man. But if we look in to the angle from markets, our F.M did his part, so the markets welcomed the session with a handy 62 points gain on last Friday.




I will not be available for few days so I will post two very important chart in this article. The move happened on last Friday was glittery but was not able to cross the mark of 5000 and saw an immediate profit booking at that level. We have some immediate resistance at 5020 level and that was the 61.8% retrace level from the bottom.

The below chart will give you an idea

-----> Day Chart







-----> Month Chart





In the day chart, the indication is based on MA 50 and MA 100, which has almost near for a crossover point and in the below monthly chart the ROC indicator has already finished it Bull move.

Both these chart indicate for a heavy Bearish move and it can last even for months. Now from the current point I feel Nifty can stretch to a maximum of 5055 to 5067 and one or two days close below 4777 will conform the above pattern. Initial targets would be 4538 and 4414, if the attack is severe then we may have 4250 and 3600 even.

But friends, don't get panic. It's just an alert call for the investors and nothing gonna happen all of a sudden in a single day. Since most of us may have missed the last bear market, but not any more. This pattern can be neglected, if market close strongly above 5310.




Do your own research before any positions and do not forget to remember me, if we get to see 4250 or 3600 :). I am off from the markets for few weeks due to my personal work and blog will be updated later on.

So friends have some profitable and safer trading days :).

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February 21, 2010

Budget Week

Hello Friends, first of all I am happy to share with you all that our blog got a traffic ranking of 8 lake over all the world and below 50,000 inside India by Alexa Ranking. It was all possible only because of your support and that too in this short time :).


Now on to this week market. Last week Nifty closed at a finer point at 4844, after some wild swings on Friday. We get to see some buying at lower levels and selling at around 4900 levels. But 4784 and 4812 will hold good support for this week. Friday's closing on SGX Nifty (4898) suggest for a gap up opening tomorrow.



Nifty if opens above 4884 and sustains for few min then day traders can initiate longs for an initial target of 4923. Once Nifty if breaks 4925 (fut) with volume on the first session, then we can target for 4976 intraday.



Sectors to be in long will be Autos and Banks. I expect bank Nifty to kiss 8677 in a day or two. But never ever carry any position for the next day until budget and trade safe :).

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February 17, 2010

4950 on the view

As posted, Nifty slowly and steadily inched to 4848 and there after momentum picked up with some fine close above 4850 mark followed by a gap up open and finally Nifty sustained around 50% retrace level above 4900.

Until now, I didn't see any kind of selling pressure in our markets. Here tomorrow 4932 and 4951 will act as stiff resistance and crossover above 4951 will pave the way for a target of 4976 and 5019 where I feel, the longs should be closed .


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February 14, 2010

It's IIP Again

Almost it was a miracle when the IIP numbers reviled on Friday. It's been almost 29 years, the country seen such a growth on monthly bias. On the other side China has tightened it's reserve again by 50BPS from Feb 25. This news has initially dragged US markets lower to almost 150 point cut on DOW. But later Tech sector helped US market to cut down it's losses.

Monday Chinese and US market are on holiday. So we may have some mixed cues but not from the world markets. Hope's are high for a gap up opening. Inflation data may come later in the day, so traders who hold long position can book initial profits if opens gapup and reentry can be made after Europe markets.

Presented a Chart with Fibbo levels last week. Nifty closed above 38.2% retrace level and the next immediate target would be 50% which is at 4917.

See the following chart :








For the past 5 trading sessions Nifty has made higher top's and all other indicators are pointing for a clear break out. But traders should be very careful at around 4933 level, which I feel will act as a trend deciding level. Only a weekly close above 4933 will indicate the medium term trend to be bullish.


Nifty spot levels for the week :

4751 - 4832 - 4884 - 4917 - 4954

A reversal again from the levels of 4930 will drag the market below 4676 and the correction will be deep. Have some profitable trading days. :)

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February 9, 2010

Greece on the News

News from Western countries to get some bailout process made US market to gear up. Dow almost surging above 200 points at this time. Almost this rally is happening from a over sold zone making some huge short covering over there at DOW.

Nikkie future is up above 1.5% currently, which all indicates for a gap up opening for our markets. I had suggested for going long in todays opening hour and friends who hold longs may look for 4832 tomorrow. If Nifty sustains above that level for 5 to 10 min then we may have an intraday target of 4884 and I believe this bounce may take the index above 4900 in one or two days.


Nifty Spot level for the day:


4777 - 4791 - 4832 - 4884 - 4908

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February 8, 2010

The Momentum

Markets shown a great deal of wide swing all through the day, that turned excellent for day traders. Almost 300 point swing and a great fight back from Bulls indicating tomorrow there is a possibility for one side move.

In my chart, which I had presented yesterday, You can get a view that Nifty almost on to 38.2% retrace level, and if that level is surpassed during opening hours we may even have a vertical up move till 4884.

So the simple view would be initiate long at opening hours and hold for a target of 4884.


Nifty spot levels for the day:


4690 - 4744 - 4791 - 4827 - 4884

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February 7, 2010

Market's ahead 08/02

From 5300 to 4700, almost 600+ points eroded in few days, almost all the stocks lost 20 to 30% of their peak value, will this be the good time to have some money inn. Yes as of me 30% of money can be supplied at this time on particular scripts.

Overall, if we take Fibbo level from 5300 to 4530, the correction that happened now touched 23.6% at 4700 and bouncing back. The short time trade on Saturday turned good and closed above 4750, which in sense indicates a bounce till 38.2% level pegging at 4827. So longers can have an initial target as 4827 and if Nifty sustain at that point, we can see a bounce till 4914.








On the other hand if Nifty reverse from 4850 level, then the immediate target will be 4620 and selling pressure at those level will make the slide still deeper to 4530 and 4250. A correction towards 4250 will be healthy at this point of time, which makes the valuation to be at a reasonable point. From the current level, even if market bounces up, I feel selling pressure will happen huge and with budget ahead, no one will feel comfortable to sit out with larger positions.



Nifty Spot levels for this week :


4620 - 4677 - 4751 - 4827 - 4882 - 4933


Open call for the day :


Buy Nifty fut above 4766 TGT 4827 -4848

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February 4, 2010

Be Cautious !!!

It's time to be very cautious. A slower start, mild move and all of a sudden blood everywhere.. I had mentioned about the volume slowdown in yesterdays raise, and today there was no speed breaker for bears.. The closing all around sensing something big to come around. I fear the fall which was expected has started before and quickly.

On today's stock move, it was clear that the market has smelled something and to add fuel to the fire US Dow almost undergoing a blood bath with more than 200 point slide. I had suggested to avoid reliance and watch the stock tomorrow. if breaks and trade below 1010 then it is ready for a killing bear ride.

Tatamotors all of a sudden lost all it's momentum and todays fall indicating that the slide may be deeper to 590 level. Infra stock like GMR making new year low with Unitech again bleeding towards 63 level.

For Nifty the previous low of 4766 will be the only hope, on account of gap down if market opens below 4765, i am expecting a bounce around 4730 , i mean just a bounce. Tomorrow's close on market will give us a clear picture as we are for 4500 or 5000.

Investors just stay away for at least till this week.


Nifty Spot level for the day:


4730 - 4766 - 4846 - 4890 - 4904

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February 3, 2010

Great going

One day of fall and other day just opposite. Today opened gap up continued it's good momentum all around the day. Lower volume raise, and lack of momentum in Midcap counters tells the story, it's just a relief rally only. To add strength Nifty spot not able to cross previous day high of 4951.15 and almost made a double top over there at that point.

As expected the Oil counter stocks with NTPC and RELCAP moved inline with my expectation. The scripts to trade long mode tomorrow will be RNRL, ITC and SAIL.

Avoid taking long position on Reliance and just wait for a close above 1070, if not happen, the stock can test 3 digit again.Avoid overran fertilizer counter. The long position at current position will turn as a trap.


Nifty Spot levels for the day:


4860 - 4882 - 4914 - 4950 - 4991

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February 2, 2010

Hello Friends

Back again after a long gap. Missed quite a few weeks of trade, and think i had entered at a good time, from now i expect a relief rally after today's close. Fresh supply seen today at around 4940 level and at a certain point it turned out to be a day of shorter, made Nifty to close at the lowest point almost.


But this is a good level for traders and can initiate long's with a stop at previous resent low of 4766 and can expect a relief rally till 5055. But remember as of me it's not the time to get long term investment as the budget is just in front of us.



Swing traders can opt for longs on NTPC and REL CAP from current levels. Tomorrow it's an important day for NTPC so traders make stop at 200rs for that stock to initiate long positions. On a bounce above 5000 levels Investor can offload some of their position, since if a correction happens from that point again, it may be heavy and we may see fresh deep cuts all around.





News flow from petroleum ministry suggesting for a rally in Oil related stocks, so BPCL, HPCL and ONGC can be taken to your watch list for a short term buying.

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January 18, 2010

Nifty View 19/01/10

A great bounce after a gap down open, bugging the global trend, nifty managed the high on open hour itself. There after the index move was a bit sluggish, but not with the scripts again. Don't know how many of you get those, (lot of them even very new to me). Most of the stocks were up around 10 to 20% on back of disinvestment news.

Apart from this, the hero for the day was bank and autos. Today's bounce from bank nifty adding more hope for 5400. Tatamotors showing strength again and it can target to 840+ in mere term. Like wise SBI is ready for a bounce, Intraday traders can use this.

Small scripts like MTNL, RNRL are getting quite good volume and moving up. In fact today MRPL also jumped up on back of some news. So short term traders can make use of long in these scripts.

Entry and exit levels only to Paid Clients.


Nifty spot levels for the day:


5228 - 5247 - 5274 - 5297 - 5312 - 5330

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January 17, 2010

Nifty View 18/01 to 22/01

Low volume, very low F&O turnover, small trading range with stock specific move are the highlights of last week trade. Index missed to use two golden opportunities to get past 5300, which indicates the indecisiveness going forward.

This made us to believe, still big shots are in holiday mood. Infosys once again lead from the front with it's quarterly numbers and TCS which gives hope for IT sec scripts in future. This week the limelight is on the big boy Reliance, with it's result on Friday evening. The stock is almost near for a break out, can be concluded on a strong trade above 1134, which in turn may pull the index to new high's.

But Nifty move gave us an indication that , it's slightly on heat and a correction is very necessary at this point. FII's were net sellers and unless the trading range is broken, Index traders will not get a chance to make some money.

I had mentioned about this on my Jan 1st article, about the stock specific move with commodities for a safer bet. The situation proves to be right on my earlier view and this week also after one or two days of good move market may remain silent only. So traders may trade for the premium reduced.

As far as Nifty is concerned just go for the following levels,

Long Breakout level : 5310 for target 5374 - 5440.
Short Breakout level : 5180 for target 5133 - 5085.

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January 11, 2010

Eye's on IIP

One more day of sluggish trade, with some specific scripts outperforming markets as usual. Block deal again on Reliance (around 3000 cr) made the stocks to bend down and dragged the market as well. It's trying hard to make the pending deal to go through, which I feel would be a positive boost for the markets.

Bharti telecom deal ended successfully, with some good news from SC boosted telecommunication sector.But the big news, IIP data to be reviled tomorrow afternoon, and because of last month blasting numbers, the expectation are high, personally i feel anything above 10.9% may trigger positive sentiments.

Tomorrow, again have an eye on power sector and capital goods. Lot's of stocks are on for upper breakout only, so friends trade carefully.

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January 10, 2010

Nifty View 11/01 to 15/01

We had a quite market last week, with some muted performance on index and delightful move on specific counters. Still lot of mid-caps and specific large-caps are ready to give a blast off. Hopefully this week will be a power packed week and I expect Nifty index and banks also join the party.

NTPC is ready for FPO, with REC and MNTC to target 30,000 cr for their oncoming expansion plans. So friends concentrate on power sector to get some powerful gains. Powergrid also looking hot and can target till 121.




Likewise ABAN entered the OB region and shorts can be initiated at possible high's with a stop at 1540 for intraday trade. One more pick from my side is kernex micro on short side with stop at 193. DLF from the move on Friday, it tends to fire up above 400 and long holders on that counter may target for 20% profit at least.

Moving on to index, Friday close suggest Nifty is ready for a bull run, if happens to get good volume then it can target around 5400 shortly.


Nifty levels for the week:


5168 - 5210 - 5244 - 5278 - 5305 - 5369 - 5444


Don't miss the upside blast in individual scripts and to get exact entry at right time just join with me in my PAID SERVICE.

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January 6, 2010

Nifty view 07/01/10

Broader market lagging without life, very tight range of move of range between 40 points. But as expected individual scripts outperforming the market. Based on RSI i can come to a conclusion that this may come to an end soon, may be tomorrow.

The recommendations which i had given on last post, generated some descent gains. Tomorrow look at TATA power , after it's yesterdays gain it has entered OB region and it has a strong resistance at 1497 1510 region. So it can be used to short for intraday basis.


Nifty Levels for the day:


5227 - 5260 - 5282 - 5303 - 5331 - 5369

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Nifty View 06/01/10

Lot's of interesting happenings going on in the market. Suddenly some stocks are firing up, the reasons are many. Fertilizer sector moving up with budget announcement. RBI announcement on FII's limit on Network 18 made the media shares to have a bump up, on the other side FII buy limit on Maruthi shares came to an end, which made the stock to bend down.

As I said in my previous article, now the market support short term investor and swing traders. Really Metal sector is the one still supporting the index, and currently at the end of the day most of the shares are on OB region. So intra day traders can opt for a short trade in shares like SAIL, TISCO etc. (do this with your own research).

Positional long on RNRL is doing well and it can target 78 shortly. Swing traders can go long in sterlingbio. Even index is not supporting for intraday trade, selective script outperforming the broader market and generating good profits. So it's all left to you to search for those kind of scripts.

Entry and exit level for all the script i had mentioned, will be given only for PAID CLIENTS. So readers of this blog, who takes these script should do a good research before entry. Else you can subscribe to my PAID SERVICE.


Nifty Spot levels for the day:


5260 - 5291 -5302 - 5327 - 5371

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January 4, 2010

Nifty View 05/01/10

Once again a low volume day. But sector specific move helping the markets to build on some gains. Calls on Bank Nifty and JP associate rocked out. Positional call on GNFC and NOIDA are doing well. Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke speech on Sunday boosted US markets and they running on with good gains above 1%. Hope if volume supports with a gapup then our market will cross 5300 tomorrow.


"There's an old traders' adage: 'Never trade a light market, because you can get burned,'"


So new traders should try to learn from these market and risk entry should be made only behind good guidance.


Nifty spot levels for the day:


5216 - 5233 - 5257 - 5277 - 5305 - 5333

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January 3, 2010

First article 2010

Hello Friends, it's good to meet you all again at a fresh year, fresh contract with some fresh views behind. Almost a wide swing of around 7000 Nifty points in 2 years. From this year, the move may not be the same, but hope it favors the investors.

Lets see about the mere term trend.




The Chart i had given based on Andrew Pith fork method and triangle pattern combined. The breakout signal indicating a short term target of 5315, a break out above will fetch a move till 5510 to 5633. It may not happen all of a sudden, but short term investors can use this.

Intraday Nifty trend remain sluggish below 5200 and a break above 5228 will result in a target of 5274 and 5305. Positional longs can be held with a stoploss of 5121 and interim view turn bullish only below a break and close below 5050. Change on market timing will get on to effect from tomorrow, and my advise will be do not enter the open hour trade all of a sudden.

Friends who are interested in my PAID SERVICE can send a mail to mkt_calls@ymail.com else Click here for details.

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December 28, 2009

Fair & Well 2009

Markets this year has given everything to everyone. Highest % gainer in all Asian markets. After the election result, our market capital has increased 10,000 cr/sec and hit upper circuit. We never know when this will happen again. But happy, we were at the time that has happened once.

Now in this week, the mentality of most of the traders and investors will be to protect their capital and to start the New Year with some profit. So the outcome may be very severe or without any fire work. Technical wont work on this week, if the volume's remain on the lower side then the volatility may be unpredictable.

For a sample, look out this picture;





This was the snap shot of opening trade happened in SGX Nifty. Look out the volatility of 300 points with high at 5300 and low point at 5000. Even these kind of moves also can be expected.

So my choice would be to wait aside instead of fighting these kind of volatility. But still, the move to look for is from Bank Nifty. I am expecting a short covering of around 5 to 7% in this sector.

Like wise Bharti Airtel stocks can be accumulated for a short term target of 346. My previous recommendation (last week) on Sail, Cairn, ICICI, Axis, Reliance, Tata steel did well and still SBI is intact for a target of 2400. Hope you friends used this for some smart gain.


Nifty spot levels for this week:


5070 - 5119 - 5160 - 5210 - 5287 - 5330


Crude my complete this year above 80$ and next year may turn the year of commodities. For Smart profit just join in my PAID SERVICE. Have a happy trading week.

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December 16, 2009

Recovery or Trap?

Today markets opened in a soft note and the levels of 5000 is held all through the day. Some wild swings later in the day made almost a trader friendly day after long time. Will this can be taken as an entry point for long's or still bears are waiting for their chance?.. This doubt will get clear after today's FED announcement.

Bank Nifty is bottoming out. SBI almost touched lowest RSI of resent times and today's low made a double bottom formation. So the script to watch for the day is SBI , ICICI and RIL. I hope all these 3 stocks has something left out to show the bears.

Cairn looking good to go long on short term view. Target 290+. Same way SAIL getting good support at 207, so in the medium term it can target 221 to 236.


Nifty spot levels for the day:


5010 - 5033 - 5041 - 5070 - 5089 - 5114


For more details and Live calls join in my Paid service.

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